Category: DFL Gov 2010

by Dave Mindeman

We all know how important the Governor's race is going to be, but equallly important is the legislature. Speculation has been all over the board from the Democrats holding their current majorities..all the way to the GOP taking over both Houses.

So I have been researching all of this to the extent that I can. I have been looking at articles in Politics in Minnesota, examining the statistics from past elections in the PIM Handbook and the SOS site. Getting some opinions from various bloggers and looking at the quality of the recruited candidates.

All of this is still very dependent on a number of key factors:

(1) Will the Governor candidates be able to coattail the local races? At this particular moment, Tom Emmer looks to be a problem for the GOP. Granted, this could all change as we move forward, but Emmer has to attract independent voters if he is going to help districts that are not rock solid GOP territory. Right now, Emmer doesn't seem to do that...nor does he seem to want to do that, as his message remains hard core, hard right. Dayton is a well known commodity and if he continues to do well, he could lead to a significant Democratic turnout -- which will help the other races on the ticket. On the other side of the coin, if Dayton stumbles and gets overwhelmed with negative campaign tactics, he could hurt Democrats overall. Tom Horner, the IP candidate, is still an unknown. Which type of voter he will appeal to will have its own effect....on either side of the ledger.

(2) Mood of the electorate. As most people are aware, the national mood of the people is negative towards the Democrats. But in Minnesota, it is a little harder to guage. Pawlenty has been a very activist Governor and there is the potential for an anti-Pawlenty mood to develop if Democrats can hit the right message. Still, with incumbents getting blamed for a lot of the current economic problems, there are certainly a lot of DFL incumbents to take the heat. With 80 plus days to go, the swing in voter sentiment could have some wide ranges.

(3) Economy. Minnesota Democrats could probably weather the current economic problems, because Pawlenty and his policies have to share some of the blame. But if the economy worsens to the point that everything about it gets nationalized, the top to bottom problems could affect the DFL legislature as well.

So taking a current snapshot, here is a best guess as to what might happen this November.....starting with the Minnesota Senate.

Current status: DFL -- 46, GOP -- 21

Ratings:

DFL: 28 Seats are safe, 10 seats lean Democratic, and 3 seats are Toss-ups. With 5 seats that will likely turnover.

GOP: 15 Seats are Safe, 4 seats lean GOP, and 2 seats are toss-ups. No seats are automatic turnovers.

First let's take the seats that the Democrats will probably lose.

(1) Senate Dist. 4: Mary Olson

Olson is a first term Senator in a McCain leaning District. Franken lost by 9 points here. This is not a sure call. Olson could hang on but with the mood favoring the GOP, this seat will probably turnover.

(2) Senate District 15: Tarryl Clark's Old Seat

Although this District did edge toward Obama, it was Clark who was able to really run against the grain here. The House seats are split. The GOP candidate, John Pederson, is a city councilmen from St. Cloud (at-large), which gives him a base on the strongest DFL side of the district. May be a close race, but will probably end up GOP.

(3) Senate District 16: Lisa Fobbe

This was a heavy McCain district and Fobbe got the benefit of GOP infighting regarding Mark Olson last time. That is not the case now.

(4) Senate District 17: Rick Olseen

Another McCain district and with Jeremy Kalin retiring on the 17B side, things don't get better. It was a squeaker last time and the Senator that Olseen unseated (Sean Nienow) is running to get it back. And he probably will.

(5) Senate District 28: Senator Steve Murphy's old seat

The only thing keeping this Democratic was Murphy himself. He was able to position himself squarely in the middle, but with him out of the picture, a strong GOP candidate in Red Wing Mayor John Howe will probably win.

Democratic Toss-up seats:

District 22 (open seat -Jim Vickerman) -- Vickerman's nephew is running as the DFLer but he is up against a sitting GOP Rep. Doug Magnus. District 38 - Jim Carlson: The GOP is targeting Carlson, but everything I hear says that Carlson will win. I put it here to throw the GOP a bone. District 47 - Leo Foley. It has always been too close for comfort for Foley. This might be the year the GOP takes him out.

Notes on Lean Dem: The GOP talks about John Doll in 40 and Ann Lynch in 30 often, but I think both incumbents may be in pretty good shape at least for now. I have Terri Bonoff in this category but I believe she is now in a good postion to win. District 50 was a toss-up with Chaudary, but it is stronger with Goodwin. Others that are in this category and may end up being vulnerable if things go sour for the Democrats: Kathy Saltzman (56), Sandy Rummel (53), Don Betzold (51), Kevin Dahle (25), Sharon Erickson Ropes (23), and Dan Skogen (10).

Let's not leave the Republicans out....

Toss-Ups:

District 12 (former Paul Koering seat):

The Republicans actually created this opening by running a very negative campaign against their own sitting Senator. Although Paul Gazelka (the primary winner) tried to disavow all the negativity, I think the division in the GOP is going to be evident.

District 49 (Debbie Johnson's old seat):

This has Democratic potential based on the strength of the DFL candidate Mayor Paul Meunier of Ham Lake. Even though this is a McCain district, the way Johnson was denied endorsement could be a problem for the Republicans.

Regarding the Lean GOP:

Most of the Republicans in this category can probably still expect to win. In an equal election cycle, they would be vulnerable, but this will be a GOP leaning year and it will take an extraordinary Democratic effort to win. Listed are: Bill Ingebrigtson (11), Mike Parry (26), District 18 (Open seat -Dille), and Joe Gimse (13). Of these seats Parry and the Open Dille seat may be the most trouble for Republicans. District 26 was a McCain/Obama split and Parry is only there due to a special election. Dille in District 18 was a more moderate Republican that decided to retire after the local party starting making noises about removing him anyway. The DFLer, Hal Kimball, was Dille's opponent in the last election but they have had a cordial relationship. Worth watching.

OK -- it is likely that the DFL veto proof majority here is gone. But the question is, how far gone?

I am guessing it this way. The GOP holds all of their seats including toss ups. They take away all the DFL toss-ups and sneak one of the lean Dem seats as well. A net of 9 seats.

The DFL will hold its majority:

DFL 37 - GOP 30

This may be updated as changes dictate. This is the opening baseline. And remember, this is just one person's estimation. A lot can happen over the course of the next 80 days and things can change dramatically. Just an opinion here and if you want to differ on something, feel free. Comments are welcome. The more, the merrier.

MN House Races soon.....

Category: DFL Gov 2010

by Dave Mindeman

I'm not quite sure I understand all the hand wringing about the DFL endorsement process. Everytime an endorsed candidate doesn't win the primary, everything is broken?

No, it's not.

Endorsement is meant to be advisory. The members of the DFL party are offering their opinion as to who they feel is the best candidate for that particular office. It's really that simple.

The primary gives the people an opportunity to say, "Hey, wait a minute, we beg to differ." That's fine. That is how it is supposed to work. The party should not consider it an insult if a candidate wants to take his case to the people. Everybody has that right.

Honestly, I think Margaret Anderson Kelliher ran a helluva campaign. She ran a smart, organized campaign, and demonstrated beyond a doubt, that she would have been a great governor. She ran against two deep pocketed challengers and ran essentially a dead heat.

I think that was a phenomenal effort. It was a narrow loss and I know, in politics, winning is everything, but the organization and ground game that was implemented was absolutely outstanding. And if it had just been money she was up against she would have won hands down.

And those of you who think that money was what stole the election from MAK, I beg to differ. Matt Entenza poured an incredibel amount of dollars into the campaign but could only manage 18%. Money isn't everything.

Dayton had money to be sure, but Dayton is also a Democratic institution in this state. He hasn't always been treated well by the party regulars, but he has never abandoned Democrats. His money hasn't just supported his own campaigns. He has been there for nearly every Democratic campaign in the state from statewide offices to House Districts.

It wasn't Dayton money that was the prime factor. It was the Dayton personna that has been the face of the DFL for decades. And Dayton's run for Governor will be backed with everything he's got -- money and otherwise.

The grousing about endorsement always focuses on the long drought in winning the Governor's office. But the Democratic party in Minnesota is hardly a losing one.

At the moment, lest we forget, we have Democrats in all of the Constitutional state offices. (All endorsed candidates except for maybe Lori Swanson in her first run - you may have to correct me on that). We have endorsed majorities, heavy majorities in the Legislative House and Senate.

Senators Klobuchar and Franken are both endorsed winners. We have 5 of the 8 Congressional seats.

It is hard to think of endorsement as a failure, given all that.

There is no doubt that we can improve this process. Absolutely. Maybe multiple endorsements at the convention are applicable, with the primary making the ultimate decision. We should be flexible.

But I firmly believe that the people who give their time and money to this Democratic Party in Minnesota still deserve a say in who the nominee will be during the election cycle.

We can be wrong about a choice but we are not wrong about the process. It helps keep the grass roots involved and with a say.

And that will always be a good thing.

Category: DFL Gov 2010

by Dave Mindeman

We have all sorts of interpretations about whether the turnout was high or low or whatever. Here are the real numbers:

Date:.....#Eligible..........#Voted........%Turnout
2000.....3,506,432........602,690..........17.19%
2002.....3,518,184........535,972..........15.23%
2004.....3,609,185........279,132............7.73%
2006.....3,667,707........514,373...........14.02%
2008.....3,725,529........419,474...........11.26%
2010.....3,806,763........589,814*..........15.5%*

So, I guess when all is said and done, the turnout was plain old average. September or August -- it works out to be the same end result.

I guess we can end the speculation on that one.