Category: Minnesota Politics

by Dave Mindeman

Today's Supreme Court decision about the Texas redistricting may be looked at as a downer for Democrats generally, but for Minnesota Democrats, it could be a golden opportunity.

That decision opens the door for redistricting maps outside the boundaries of the census. This would be a golden opportunity for a political party that controls the governorship along with both houses of the legislature. With some very hard work and a little luck, that could be Democrats in Minnesota.

Hatch (or Lourey) wins, the State Senate holds, and the one seat majority for the GOP in the House turns over. What would stop us from remapping the Congressional seats in this state? If the Republicans cry foul.... blame it on Delay and the new Supreme Court. They fixed it for themselves --- now we can unfix it.

Work hard for that Democratic House majority.... the opportunities abound!

Category: World Politics

by Dave Mindeman

Iraq Prime Minister Al-Maliki's reconciliation plan has been proposed. Ironicially, it calls for timetabled negotiated withdrawal of American troops. As Russ Feingold articulated on Meet the Press, Maliki's plan is essentially the Democratic Senate proposal which was so harshly dismissed with all sorts of "cut and run" rhetoric.

Newsweek had a summary of the major points as follows:

A timetable for withdrawal of occupation troops from Iraq. Amnesty for all insurgents who attacked U.S. and Iraqi military targets. Release of all security detainees from U.S. and Iraqi prisons. Compensation for victims of coalition military operations. Those sound like the demands of some of the insurgents themselves, and in fact they are. But they're also key clauses of a national reconciliation plan drafted by new Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.....

Now, the criticism of the amnesty plan for insurgents that killed Americans (criticism voiced by Democrats), led to some back tracking by Maliki. His most recent statements are a little more murky on that subject. But the agreement would recognize the insurgency of local Sunni militias as a "national resistance to an occupying force". In effect, it will sanction the killing of our soldiers as part of the rules of war. That will be difficult to accept. And there are furthur indications that other factions of the Iraqi government will also have problems signing on to other parts of the agreement.

But the bottom line is that Maliki is using language which the White House been criticizing the Democrats for, relentlessly. Bush is rapidly losing control of the "message". Even the new Iraqi government is beginning to move away from the Bush policy line.

This agreement also requires recognition of the separation of this "national resistance" from the war on terrorism. A slap at the Bush administration concept of this being the premiere "battleground in the war on terror".

Withdrawal of coalition forces would use "condition based" language, but several factions within the government want actual dates to use as benchmarks. Again, another slap in the face of the Bush rhetoric.

As this proposal moves forward it will be interesting to see how well the administration receives this "negotiated way out" from this prime minister.....the leader he had to meet in the dead of night to "look into his eyes" .... the government head he now "believes in" wholeheartedly.

Category: US Politics

by PDW58

National Review's list of the 50 most vulnerable Congressional seats was released a couple of weeks ago. Of those 50 seats, 40 are currently held by Republicans. In fact, the top 9 seats are all held by Republicans.

Number 1 on the list is Iowa-1. This was a seat held by Jim Nussle who is now running for Governor of Iowa. Vilsack can't run again, but Nussle is still trailing in the polls for Governor. Ironically, the most vulnerable Democrat on the list is also in Iowa (listed as number 10). Iowa 3 currently held by Democrat Boswell has attracted GOP big shots like Rudy Giuliani.

The Minnesota 6th open seat is the only MN seat in the top 50 and comes in at number 18 on the list. The evaluators still consider this a tough call for Wetterling but they feel she is holding her own in fundraising.

One interesting note is that Minnesota-1 (Tim Walz) has made the "fringe" commentary. They have put this race on the radar as one that could break into the top 50 at some point.

The outlook continues to give Democrats a good chance in November but momentum is slowing and Republicans are well funded and have a lot of safely gerrymandered districts.

The danger lies in Democrats getting overconfident, because the odds of a full turnover of the House are still against them.