Posted: Wednesday, 10 March 2010 00:56
by Dave Mindeman
Over the course of the last few weeks the DFL county and senate district conventions are producing the final group that will determine the DFL endorsement. With all that activity happening, there has been an enormous amount of speculation as to what it all means. So, what does it mean?
I have heard a number of ideas put out there, heard a lot of campaign theories, and observed a lot of the usual convention tactics.
After homogenizing all of this together, the answers are just as elusive as when we started. The delegate counts need to be taken with a grain of salt. Although the MPP count and my unofficial tally are reasonably close in numbers, don't look at it as any kind of definitive show of strength for any particular candidate.
Even when delegates come form "named" candidate subcaucuses, that delegate might be only marginal in real support. Having been through the subcaucus process a number of times, it is less about candidate support and more about just going to the convention.
With so many candidates involved, delegates can filter through any viable subcaucus without naming whom they actually support. Sometimes on purpose, sometimes because that support is only lukewarm anyway.
The Kelliher campaign has taken the most traditional method at the conventions. They have been getting their supporters together and directly naming their caucus. Delegate support from those groups should be pretty solid. The Rybak campaign has followed that up to a point, but they have been making a concerted effort to filter into the undecided caucuses as well. I heard one anecdotal story that said when the subcaucuses at one convention were all named and the vast majority were listed as "undecided", this person said they saw a group of Rybak people take off their stickers and filter into different undecided groups.
There is nothing wrong with that; it's a perfectly legitimate strategy, especially in this type of year where we are not pared down to one or two major candidates.
In addition to all that, the Congressional candidates strive to get their people through as well. Getting named subcaucuses to be viable for a Congressional candidate is often difficult and a lot of them get absorbed into other groups. That doesn't mean their supporters aren't making it through to the conventions.... it just means they aren't as visible.
The massive number of listed undecideds is very unusual. And, while a lot of them are not "true" undecideds, I believe that a majority of them are....I know I am.
There has been speculation that Mark Dayton and Matt Entenza are trying to work the undecideds heavily to form some kind of block. I talked to several people close to the Dayton campaign and they are telling me that no such plan is being done. Supporters may be doing it on their own but there is no campaign activity in that regard. I can't be as certain about the Entenza campaign, but I doubt they are doing anything of that nature either. There are just too many candidates and too many unknowns.
Then there is ReNEW Minnesota. A block of delegates that are pledged to an endorsement process that favors Rybak, Kelliher, or Thissen. But since they have 3 candidates involved, its hard to figure out how that is a factor unless they move as a block to one candidate right away. I doubt that that is the plan. I would assume their actions will be later in the convention when we have eliminated some candidates already. Their three will probably be in it all the way. So, again, its all an unknown.
Oh, I heard other stories, too. At one convention, Matt Entenza's father in law emerged as a delegate from an undecided caucus -- you think he is really undecided? Other places got burned by some of the rule changes. In Brainerd, a Thissen subcaucus lost its viability when the viable number got increased by one and they had just moved one of their number to another group to make that group viable as well. At least one of them was dissolved because they were one short.
It's a wild process at times, but it is also a good test of campaign organization. Who has the numbers and who has the communication to make it work for their own campaign. Obviously, the Kelliher and Rybak campaigns have been pretty successful so far, but as a commenter pointed out on this blog -- the numbers are a virtual reflection of the Precinct Caucus straw poll. Nobody has really improved upon the numbers they started with.
So we have about a month and a half to go. Several conventions still need to convene. The legislature is in session througout the process. And there is no sign that anybody is dropping out.
So, we are right back to where we started.
It's anybody's game.
