Posted: 07/28/10 18:20
by Dave Mindeman
I have talked extensively about the DFL primary race for governor, and we are now entering the home stretch. I have tried to point out what I see as strengths and weaknesses of the three candidates. Some people think I get a little tough on some individuals and others think I gloss over some of the problems.
Mostly I am just pointing out what I think are important items to consider as we head to August 10th. Of course, let the primary voters make the final decision. And then it is on to November with whomever you choose.
Today I want to talk briefly about what I call the GEP. (General Election Pivot). For most of the primary season the candidates have focused on the DFL base voters. They have to convince them that they are the best candidate in order to move on to the general election phase. So, for these past months, the 3 candidates have been emphasizing their left-leaning credentials....some harder than others.
But after August 10th, the winner will need to essentially make a quick pivot and broaden his or her appeal. The victor now must consider what the independent and moderate voters are going to be looking at and make a new appeal to them as well.
The question becomes who is in the best position to move seamlessly into that broader, general election mode. Well, here is one opinion:
1) Mark Dayton. Mark is a flat out progressive and it is why he has largely been considered the favorite in the primary. It is also the reason that he will have the hardest time making that GEP. He has invested too much in his current message and there is no backing off. That will lead to a very clear choice for Minnesota. Tom Emmer is not backing off his conservative credentials and Dayton will stand by his. The argument will be joined and I have to admit it would be interesting to see where that would lead. However, the middle ground will be easier for Horner to stake out in such an instance and the IP candidate will probably do better than expected in such a contest. Who that will hurt more is anybody's guess.
2) Matt Entenza. Entenza's main message is also a very clear progressive one -- green energy and green jobs. Again, that will be a contrast to Emmer. However, Entenza's other positions move him somewhat closer to the middle and he can adjust his message with a little more ease than Dayton will be able to. Another advantage that Entenza has is that his deep pockets can be utilized for image flexibility. If the message isn't working, change it.
3) Margaret Anderson Kelliher. Kelliher probably has the best tools for making the GEP. Her Lt. Governor John Gunyou fits the mold of a fiscal policy wonk. Her stance on taxes has been nuanced to the right of Dayton. Her jobs focus is the correct one for a general election. Her recent property tax focus is a clear GEP winner. And her language is often crafted to make that broader appeal. Of the three, her GEP could be the easiest.
There is little doubt that all three could make the transition. And the real clear advantage for the DFLers is that their GOP opponent is Tom Emmer.
His General Election Pivot shoes are made of concrete.
You should be more skeptical. Why is it that Republicans have never cut back government when they were in power? 2002 was the 2nd largest increase in MN government that decade. Karl Rove is famous for saying "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter."