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GOP Governor Race: There Will Be Blood

Category: GOP Politics
Posted: 03/09/10 16:43

by Dave Mindeman

The Emmer vs. Seifert free for all on the GOP side of the governor's race is heating up. Both sides are capable of some prolific attack dog politics. And it will get nasty.

It is gradually developing into a conservative base vs. party establishment fight. Emmer is increasingly drawing endorsements and support from conservative bloggers, conservative activists, and conservative leadership. Seifert has support from old line party leadership and the more traditional Republican base.

The two have developed a recent history. Emmer had challenged Seifert for Minority Leader a few years back and then refused to vote for him for Speaker in 2009. Emmer has been waiting awhile for this opportunity and he is cashing in.

Add to all of this the fact that delegate strength to the convention is nearly evenly divided and you have the makings of an old style, no holds barred, nasty party convention.

It is noteworthy that Seifert has been particularly critical of Emmer's voting record of late. The in-depth research style has the definite ring of a Brodkorb type tactic. Although the former MDE attack blogger has been careful to be neutral in his capacity as party deputy chair, his fingerprints are almost detectable in the current Seifert strategy.

Looking over the general Republican landscape, let me make a speculation...and mind you this is only an opinion.

The conservatives are putting a vested interest in Emmer. He is emerging as their consensus choice. Emmer has a wind at his back as he makes his case for the convention.

If Seifert manages to wrest the nomination away from Emmer in a bloody convention, you will see a party that will go into the fall campaign divided. A conservative backlash might just stop the conservatives from coalescing around Seifert, reducing his turn out and possibly moving toward some other third party or maybe even forming one.

Emmer may have a better chance of holding the party together but he is going to carry some baggage as well.

There will be blood.
comments (6) permalink
05/10/10 20:07
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ADDEERRTTSSSTTTT
 
03/10/10 18:02
<i>Before addressing your commentary, I was wondering if Bill Jungbauer has any thoughts on the blogger BOOTS ON posting The Case For Throwing Coleman Under The Bus ?</i>

Not sure about Bill, but I do. Who cares? Boots On is a smallish conservative blog. He reflects a current of opinion, and one that Republicans need to pay attention to - when conservatives stay home, the GOP loses.

<i>Even Coleman now admits that his TARP vote cost him the election … just ask the 63,203 McCain supporters who did not vote for Coleman, if they agreed that the party was united behind the US Senate nominee ?</i>

They certainly were not. Fiscal conservatism is going to be a key issue in the coming campaign.

<i>Yes, it is going to be bloody. It makes me wonder if Seifert would be helped by a Primary Challenge … Emmer is so hard right that voters may see Seifert as more moderate than he is.</i>

Emmer is conservative, but he also does a fantastic job of explaining to moderates and undecideds <i>why</i> his ideas make sense. To meet Tom Emmer is to like Tom Emmer. He's like a young Ronald Reagan, in a lot of ways. Don't write him off just because he's "far right".

<i>That said, the MN-GOP voters will have a choice in November … Vote with the nominee (my bet today is Emmer) or look at Tom Horner and the IP Party … with enough crossover from socially-moderate fiscally-responsible Republicans, Horner could easily break 30%. </i>

Please send a bag of whatever you're smoking to me. They say that every single election; remember when the Strib showed Tim Penny polling 30% in 2002? I believe this may be the year we are finally rid of the potemkin facade that is the Independence Party.

<i>So the question for the DFL is : how many votes will you lose to Horner ?</i>

More than the GOP will.

<i>In the end, Mr. Jungbauer may be right that they would keep the governor's seat from a liberal as I don't think anyone would call Tom Horner a Liberal</i>

In this electoral climate, with this amount of revulsion with the Obama and Kelliher/Pogey tax and spend regime? Yes, they will.
 
03/10/10 13:47
Yes. I will work to get Marty elected if he becomes the endorsed candidate and will work to unite everyone behind him without compliant.

I did not see the BootsOn post so I cannot comment on it.

The majority of Libertarian voters could be described as socially-moderate, fiscally-conservative Republicans. They are just one of the group of voters who are backing Tom Emmer big time.

You will not see a big cross over vote like we did in 2008 because the lesson has been learned about moderates. A candidate with principles gets the respect they deserve. If you are lukewarm I shall spit you out. That is what happened to a couple of candidates in 08. Not this year.
 
03/10/10 11:02

Before addressing your commentary, I was wondering if Bill Jungbauer has any thoughts on the blogger BOOTS ON posting The Case For Throwing Coleman Under The Bus ? Even Coleman now admits that his TARP vote cost him the election … just ask the 63,203 McCain supporters who did not vote for Coleman, if they agreed that the party was united behind the US Senate nominee ?

Yes, it is going to be bloody. It makes me wonder if Seifert would be helped by a Primary Challenge … Emmer is so hard right that voters may see Seifert as more moderate than he is.
That said, the MN-GOP voters will have a choice in November … Vote with the nominee (my bet today is Emmer) or look at Tom Horner and the IP Party … with enough crossover from socially-moderate fiscally-responsible Republicans, Horner could easily break 30%.

So the question for the DFL is : how many votes will you lose to Horner ?

In the end, Mr. Jungbauer may be right that they would keep the governor's seat from a liberal as I don't think anyone would call Tom Horner a Liberal
 
03/10/10 10:11
So, Mr. Jungbauer, as an Emmer supporter you would work just as hard for Marty Seifert, no matter what happens at the convention? Just asking.
 
03/10/10 10:05
Totally wrong. We will all unite behind whoever is nominated at the convention. We are all very aware of the importance of how hard we must work together in keeping the governor's seat from a liberal.
 
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